West Bank annexation looms after Netanyahu-Gantz agreement

The coalition agreement signed on April 20th by Netanyahu and Benny Gantz sets the stage for an Israeli government to potentially be established after a year of inconclusive elections. The agreement also significantly increases the chances for Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank, allowing the government to initiate legislation for annexation starting on July 1st. However, a number of elements within the agreement make the prospective government’s path to annexation unclear. 

Paragraph 28 stipulates that “with regard to President Trump's declaration [on the peace plan], the Prime Minister and the Alternate Prime Minister will act in full agreement with the United States, including with the Americans in regard to the maps and with international dialogue on the subject,” and paragraph 29 explicitly states that legislation for annexation will be based on “agreement reached with the United States.” What will be agreed to by the United States is unknown; it may shift based on the political priorities of the Trump administration and may include a broader, formal Israeli acceptance of the US plan. Another unknown is what will constitute “international dialogue” and to what extent Israeli will factor such dialogue into its decision-making, given the near-unanimous opposition to annexation throughout the international community.

Paragraph 28 also states that legislative measures towards annexation will be taken “while pursuing the security and strategic interests of the State of Israel, including the need for maintaining regional stability, the preservation of peace agreements and the pursuit of future peace agreements.” Considering the stance of both Jordan and Egypt against annexation, the threat it would pose to their stability, and Israel’s relations with both countries – enshrined in peace treaties – as well as with other regional states, it remains to be seen how Israel can proceed with annexation while adhering to these principles. It is also notable that the coalition agreement contains no language specifically related to launching peace negotiations with the Palestinians or achieving a two-state solution, the purported goals of the Trump administration’s “Vision for Peace”.

Israel’s ultimate decision could be influenced by a multitude of other factors, particularly the position of the security establishment, and could be influenced by legal and economic factors, as well as public opinion. From a political perspective, although Gantz’ Blue and White party is expected to oppose unilateral annexation, the degree to which the party is willing to do so, and how united they will be in the process, is highly uncertain.

With the coalition agreement explicitly mandating a move towards annexation, the parameters related to Israeli law in the West Bank and Israeli control over Area C decreased from 5 to 4 and from 3 to 2, respectively. In addition, the continued entrenchment of West Bank annexation as an accepted idea among the Israeli mainstream moved the Israeli public opinion parameter down from 7 to 6.

COVID-19 cooperation continues despite new strains

There were new, positive instances of cooperation between Israel and the Palestinians in April related to the fight against the spread of the coronavirus. A joint Israeli-Palestinian medical committee was established, and Israel tentatively agreed to advance tax revenue payments of NIS 500 million per month to the Palestinian Authority for six months (although it is currently unclear if this measure will go forward). Furthermore, a group of Palestinian doctors and nurses from Gaza were reportedly given training by an Israeli medical team at the Erez crossing, and another group from Gaza subsequently permitted to attend a training workshop in Ashkelon, according to the same report.

However, the spirit of cooperation that emerged after the outbreak of the virus also came under the strain of the political dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In early April, Israeli police arrested Adnan Ghaith, the PA-appointed governor of East Jerusalem, and PA minister of Jerusalem Affairs Fadi al-Hadami, both for conducting activity in Jerusalem related to COVID-19. On April 15th, Israeli police shut down a coronavirus testing center in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan whose testing kits were provided by the PA. One week later, Israeli authorities prevented Palestinian police from enforcing coronavirus-related regulations in East Jerusalem, despite having allowed such enforcement on two prior occasions.

Despite these developments, overall Israeli-Palestinian cooperation related to COVID-19 remained productive in April, and all relevant parameters stayed the same.

Palestinian economy in the West Bank suffering under COVID-19 restrictions

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics announced in April that it expects the Palestinian economy to incur losses of roughly $2.5 billion, assuming that the effects of the coronavirus pandemic last until at least May, with GDP declining by 14% in 2020 compared to 2019. It is anticipated that private and public consumption will decrease by a total of $1.3 billion, and investment by $2.1 billion, with drastic consequences for the services sector in particular, as well as tourism, industry, construction, and agriculture. Moreover, it was revealed by Palestinian PM Mohammad Shtayyeh that declining local and clearance revenues have increased the PA’s budget deficit to about $1.4 billion.

There were some glimmers of hope for financial aid, with 59 US members of congress publicly urging the Trump administration to resume aid to the Palestinians. This came on the heels of a $5 million contribution from the US, which is supposed to be directed to the funding of hospitals in Jerusalem in the coming weeks. On April 22nd, Secretary Pompeo indicated that the Trump administration may consider releasing additional funds.

Nonetheless, the Palestinian economy will be significantly affected by the pandemic, with the full extent of the damage unknowable in the near term. In April, the relevant parameter decreased from 4 to 3.  

Violence in the West Bank on the rise

April witnessed a marked increase in violent attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank, continuing a trend from the previous month. The Israeli human rights organization B’tselem recorded 23 attacks through the first three weeks of April, matching the total for all of March (final statistics for April have not yet been released). The attacks included assaults with weapons as well as vandalism. Meanwhile, the IDF reported a rise in stone-throwing by Palestinians at Israeli civilian vehicles.

While these trends are notable, Israeli and Palestinian violence in the West Bank remains at a relatively low level for now, and all relevant parameters stayed the same in April.

• The Israeli High Court’s ruling, in the first week of May, on whether a government can be formed on the basis of the Netanyahu-Gantz agreement 
  
• The final make-up and priorities of the Israeli government, assuming it is able to be formed
  
• Developments on "Nakba Day" (May 15th) – the day Palestinians commemorate their displacement in 1948 – which has previously seen demonstrations and some violence