Democrats shift on aid to Israel while Trump administration’s “vision” remains stuck in neutral

Throughout October, there were indications of a general shift in opinion within the US Democratic Party on the issue of aid to Israel. Senator Elizabeth Warren, currently polling in second place in the Democratic presidential primary election, said that “if Israel is moving in the opposite direction [of a two-state solution], everything is on the table” when responding to a question about conditioning military aid on the curbing of settlement expansion in the West Bank. Senator Bernie Sanders, another frontrunner in the primary, went one step further by stating that Israel would have to “fundamentally change [its] relationship with Gaza,” and suggested that some funds could be diverted to the Strip for humanitarian purposes. Another leading candidate, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, said that annexation of parts of the West Bank would merit a reconsideration of aid to Israel. 

However, these sentiments were countered by former Vice President Joe Biden, who maintains a lead in the primary race. Biden asserted that the idea of conditioning aid to Israel is “absolutely outrageous” and would be a “gigantic mistake.” Nonetheless, a poll released on October 25 found that roughly 70% of Democrats are in favor of conditioning aid to Israel. Influential Jewish American columnist Peter Beinart wrote that “by exposing the popularity of restrictions on American aid, Senator Sanders has pressured his rivals to move in his direction” and concluded that “when it comes to Israel, there are now two Democratic Parties.”

Meanwhile, the Trump administration continued to make clear that it would delay publication of its “vision for peace” until after the formation of an Israeli government, which appears increasingly unlikely anytime soon. Jared Kushner traveled to Israel on October 28 to meet with PM Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, the latter having been tasked on October 23 with forming a government after Netanyahu’s failure to do so. In a subsequent interview, Kushner refused to reject the option of Israel annexing the Jordan Valley, saying that “we like to keep our options open.” This followed remarks by US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman that the administration’s “vision” would not include the evacuation of settlers from parts of the West Bank, calling it “failed policy” and “not something we would advance.”

The continued delay of the publication of the Trump administration’s “vision for peace”, which would likely undermine the two-state framework, is therefore a positive development for the possibility of achieving a two-state solution. Combined with the shifts among Democratic politicians and voters in the US, these developments shifted the US parameter from 3 to 4.

Positive economic news for the Palestinian Authority

On October 4, the Palestinian Authority announced that it had reached a deal with the Israeli government to accept tax funds (clearance revenues) totaling NIS 1.8 billion. Since February, the PA had refused to accept the revenues, which come from customs duties levied on items imported to Palestinian markets through Israeli ports. This refusal was in protest of the Israeli government’s decision to deduct an amount equal to what the PA pays Palestinian prisoners and their families. 

The deal also included an agreement by Israel to reactivate joint Palestinian-Israeli technical committees that had been suspended for almost 20 years. Palestinian officials said that this would allow for re-negotiating and amending parts of the Paris Protocol, the economic portion of the Oslo Accords. According to The Portland Trust, these committees “will examine pending fiscal disputes, including deductions made by Israel in the past two decades over electricity, water, and medical transfers bills” and the Palestinians will seek changes to the Paris Protocol “such as renegotiating import lists and quotas, and acquiring approval for infrastructure construction and projects that pass through Area C in the West Bank.”

As for the continuing issue of Israel’s deduction of payments equal to the PA’s so-called “Martyrs’ Fund”, it was reported that both sides have “agreed to disagree” and Israel will continue to deduct NIS 40 million per month from transfers to the PA. Hussein Al Sheikh, Head of Palestinian Civil Affairs Commission and a member of the Fatah Central Committee, said that the payments to prisoners and their families will continue, and that the PA is “determined to pay their dues at all costs.”

With the retroactive transfer of clearance revenues, which constitute more than 50% of the PA’s total revenue, the parameter related to the Palestinian economy in the West Bank shifted from 3 to 4 in October.